In March this year, Shenzhen announced the abolition of LED industry planning policies, which was once interpreted by the outside world as a way to avoid the emergence of a second "photovoltaic". Recently, a reporter from China Securities News conducted an interview on the current situation of LED companies. Research. Judging from the front-line situation, since this year, the LED backlight and lighting market has been in strong demand, and chip, packaging and application manufacturers have received full orders. Some entrepreneurs and industry analysts believe that The LED explosion will start in the fourth quarter of this year, and will usher in a prosperous period of seven to eight years.
The LED industry has huge space, and the lighting market explosion is approaching
An entrepreneur from the frontline of LED believes that "an industry explosion is imminent." Gu Wei, chairman of Zhaochi Co., Ltd., said in an exclusive interview with reporters, "The LED industry has huge room for growth and has become the second photovoltaic industry. Impossible." The reason is that LED belongs to consumer electronics. The biggest feature of consumer electronics is that it is widely used and the market is extremely broad. He judged that the critical point of the LED market explosion has been In the near future, the industry will be booming in the next seven to eight years.
In fact, due to the high cost of chips and heat dissipation materials, the application breadth of LED products, especially lighting products, has been restricted for a long time. Relevant data show that in early 2013, The purchase cost of LED lighting is 7-8 times that of ordinary energy-saving lamps, and twice that of energy-saving lamps with dimming function. For example, LED lighting products from mainstream European and American brand manufacturers are priced at US$19/thousand lumens, while Ordinary energy-saving lamps only cost US$2.5/thousand lumens, and energy-saving lamps with dimming function only cost US$10/thousand lumens.
But according to the reporter's understanding, LED lighting can save costs in many places and the space is not small. For example, in the future, chips are expected to continue to decline by 20%, and heat dissipation aluminum materials can be saved by 30%. Gu Wei said, "Anytime As chip prices continue to drop, at the same time, the luminous efficiency of chips has improved, and heat dissipation devices have been greatly simplified. The price of LED lighting products is constantly approaching that of energy-saving lamps. " Quotes from merchants confirm this. According to data from JD.com in May 2013, a lighting brand's 800-lumen product (equivalent to 60W incandescent lamp brightness) sells for only RMB 50. coins, equivalent to US$10/thousand lumens. If the export tax rebate is taken into account, the export selling price is about US$9/thousand lumens. This can already compete with energy-saving lamps with dimming function. Gu Huaihuai, an analyst at West China Securities, predicted in a research report that LED light sources will fall to US$15/thousand lumens by early 2014. The light source prices of some aggressive lighting manufacturers in the Asia-Pacific region Will drop to $8/thousand lumens. In about 2-3 years, the cost of LED lighting products will drop to the critical replacement point ($5) for large-scale replacement of global energy-saving lamps.
He concluded that the LED lighting market may explode in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. In terms of products, LED's large-scale substitution of traditional light source products may take the lead in the commercial lighting field. Especially the market segments that require dimming functions are expanding. From a regional perspective, regions with higher industrial and commercial electricity prices such as Europe and Japan may be the first to start. Taking Japan as an example, the use of LED light sources is more cost-effective than ordinary The extra cost of energy lamps can be recovered within 2 years. "It is expected that the household LED lighting market in Europe and Japan will start in early 2015. At the same time, the industrial and commercial lighting market in developing countries will also start. move. "
There is still room for cost reduction, and brand manufacturers have obvious advantages.
Although the LED market space is huge, due to the low entry threshold, brand manufacturers and copycat manufacturers are fighting fiercely. Some copycat products even have a price "advantage" over brand-name manufacturers. Industry People pointed out that in the future, brand manufacturers with advantages in production scale and product cost-effectiveness will ultimately win. First of all, compared with copycat manufacturers, large-scale enterprises have stronger capabilities in chip procurement. bargaining power; secondly, brand manufacturers are more competitive in product design technology and technological innovation. Although counterfeit products are cheap, the main reason is that they use cheap chips and drivers The power supply and heat dissipation device also cut corners.
Gu Wei said that current LED is like TV in 2006 and 2007. As long as you invest in it and work hard, this industry will develop very quickly because the market is infinite. Companies think about the future Tilt resources towards LED, continuously expand high-quality customers at home and abroad, rapidly increase production capacity, and turn LED into the company's second largest performance engine. The income should be 50% of the company's revenue, or even more